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Abstract Previous research has stressed the importance of uncertainty for controlling the speed of learning, and how such control depends on the learner inferring the noise properties of the environment, especially volatility: the speed of change. However, learning rates are jointly determined by the comparison between volatility and a second factor, moment-to-moment stochasticity. Yet much previous research has focused on simplified cases corresponding to estimation of either factor alone. Here, we introduce a learning model, in which both factors are learned simultaneously from experience, and use the model to simulate human and animal data across many seemingly disparate neuroscientific and behavioral phenomena. By considering the full problem of joint estimation, we highlight a set of previously unappreciated issues, arising from the mutual interdependence of inference about volatility and stochasticity. This interdependence complicates and enriches the interpretation of previous results, such as pathological learning in individuals with anxiety and following amygdala damage. 

Abstract It is thought that the brain’s judicious reuse of previous computation underlies our ability to plan flexibly, but also that inappropriate reuse gives rise to inflexibilities like habits and compulsion. Yet we lack a complete, realistic account of either. Building on control engineering, here we introduce a model for decision making in the brain that reuses a temporally abstracted map of future events to enable biologically-realistic, flexible choice at the expense of specific, quantifiable biases. It replaces the classic nonlinear, model-based optimization with a linear approximation that softly maximizes around (and is weakly biased toward) a default policy. This solution demonstrates connections between seemingly disparate phenomena across behavioral neuroscience, notably flexible replanning with biases and cognitive control. It also provides insight into how the brain can represent maps of long-distance contingencies stably and componentially, as in entorhinal response fields, and exploit them to guide choice even under changing goals.